This is a government rescue of the economy to do, because no matter what China or abroad, whether modern or past, the Government should be made in the economic development of macro-control over,
economy and stock market is definitely mutual influence between the two, such as economic well, the stock market, of course it is not. the economy is good the stock market would you? wrong. History has proved that China's economic good times, the stock market had a five-year bear market, this is not true, not like a natural.
not just go to the market to explain, just go to management to do. Some people always think that, all by the market have the final say, if all the market have the final say, can not overcome the economic crisis, the reason why the economic crisis occurred because of market failure, so no absolute freedom in any market economy.
locked country and the people are not investors, is a good thing, I do not know why the Chinese stock market crash was pleased, others put the blame on management, that the management would like to see China's stock market fell, which is incredible things.
Government to do the things government should do, investors bear the responsibility he.
management finally fell by nearly 4,000 points cost awareness that size reduction is a problem of non-.
I think the tragedy of the retail market is small, the last time restrain the Code, because the information asymmetry, the collapse of confidence, in the bottom of the flesh, the Chinese stock market than the American several times the decline, which in fact is also a financial crisis.
1. I think the government should rescue the economy is doing,
Reporter: August 20, JP Morgan has brought to the market the day the report The blowout was talking about Frank Gong, the Chinese government may take hundreds of billions to save the economy the stock market, but market participants have a variety of arguments, in general, the tone of suspicion and against the majority. I summed up a bit, market point of view on this matter there are several: First, the Chinese economy is not out of the big problem? or need to save; second, to save the stock market is not necessary? Some people think that it is necessary to save the economy, but to save the stock market unnecessary; Third, the method used to save, what policies to save, how to save the results. In short, the media talking about this aspect, have their own views. Today we have invited our old friend, when Chinese Chief Editor of the well known water and human skin Financial Review published his views on the teacher.
Water Paper: I think the government should rescue the economy is doing, because no matter what China or abroad, whether modern or past, the government should economic development to make macro-control over when they should just pour cold water on the overheated economy, when the economy will decline when the risk of stimulating the economy, which is something the government should do. From the perspective of economic management, regulation of macro-control is a kind of reverse You will find that governments are promoting the economic stimulus the revitalization plan, the U.S. would not have talked about, including the recent The same is true of Japan.
is not it time we take the economic stimulus plan, the first round of the early 90s after the macro-control because of economic hard landing, has been in promoting the economic stimulus plan, the last time the main government bonds, investment in infrastructure, with government investment as an investment to promote and stimulate economic recovery can appear good.
everyone says, it would be a draw Roosevelt's New Deal, the deal. I think this time is facing the same situation, is not to reuse the form of bonds, is not in the form of government investment in infrastructure to do, I'm afraid not, because the choice is varied. In general, the economic downturn, there may be relatively downturn, driven by the government to introduce economic stimulus plan or governments are doing a thing I believe the country will also have this practice.
In fact, this is not the issue should not be, the Central July 11 discussion of non-Party people when the economic situation has been more obvious, and just how powerful, how strong policy issues, such as whether the tax rebate it? tax only in the export sector, and also reflected on the income tax. There is not a business loan open issues, including the other's credit policy is not the issue will be open, the exchange rate policy issues will not be adjusted. I believe will become increasingly uncertain after the Olympics.
Reporter: Do you think the money saved out of policy and the economy is as it should be, then if the government does not do what will happen? If you do, what will happen? is actually a hard landing for the Chinese economy and a soft landing of the problem, you look ahead.
Water Paper: the government should do this thing, in the economic downturn, the Government does not, as it is inconceivable things.
Reporter: It is said that the government depends on the data, at least to see the August data, is not as he had expected, as the economy is not a decline, CPI, PPI significant decline before the introduction of the policy, or It is said that there will be differences.
Water Paper: No, otherwise they will be policy.
Reporter: There is another analysis, in the end what the policy is the use of active fiscal policy, taxation, whether you, or use to ease monetary policy, is said to have differences, you do some evaluation.
2 . I think that the tight monetary policy certainly is problematic, since it proved to solve the problem is not resolved.
Water Paper: I think the tight monetary policy certainly is problematic, since it proved to solve the The issue is not resolved, such as the increase in money growth yuan invested, he has not resolved. did not, and it has not, the future will not. because of what, because blindly using this prescription there is a problem, is a big negative effect SMEs do not say, and basically pushed the SME desperate, this is not the central bank of the dry matter, as we have seen, therefore, the Central Standing Committee continue to do so much research.
I believe monetary policy is certainly to be adjusted, as is the loose monetary policy with tight monetary policy or the words or other leaders of the things we all know that the amount has been relaxed, and then how to say no use, the fact put in here. proactive fiscal policy is also a considerable negative effect. Just now we talked about, the last round of a hard landing, so the use of active fiscal policy to pull this one should say a little better, at least can be said that a soft landing. is not to with active fiscal policy? to government investment to boost it? this issue, I think that really is open to question, because the first round of government investment has been relatively large. This round of investment in space is how much we have to consider variables.
In addition, the Government has put in too many resources too hands to tilt the state-owned enterprises and the government is not a good thing, because it is not conducive to economic restructuring and the development of long-term stability, so a proactive fiscal policy, of course it should be, at least not negative fiscal policy. fiscal policy, after all, is limited, this time to adjust monetary policy must be done, as is a positive monetary policy that is a personal understanding.
Reporter: At least you think that, in fact, tight monetary policy has been abandoned?
Water Paper: No I think the reports are no longer open the word out with.
Reporter: do not use that word, you can also do that, but others do not to say it.
Water Paper: credit line is not relaxed?
Reporter: Yes.
Water Paper: That does it, can not hold things millet Chen sesame rotten to prove there is no significance in the this discussion does not make sense.
3. just go to the management do.
Reporter: save the economy and the market to discuss the relationship between saving the stock market. It is said that there is a more popular view at the top, the economy should be saved , the stock market should not be saved, because the economy is good, the stock market can be good, bad economy, the stock market to save no better.
water skin: the relationship between the economy and stock market are common sense issues, the stock market is not ; economic indicator, will you? wrong. History has proved that China's economic good times, the stock market had a five-year bear market, it is not true, not like a natural. Speaking of the Chinese stock market, there are historical reasons, it is a natural defect tradable shares only on the one hand, of course, a sound legal environment is not one.
after the share reform, in theory, it's trading system and international standards should be, but in fact from a circulation point of view, to the current No standards, is in the process of integration between. At the present stage is concerned, serious imbalance in supply and demand, including the stock market valuation does not reflect the true market value of the stock market PE to a decade low, do not even like the United States PE, and the rapid development of this The economy is not true, it all comes naturally can not be explained by the market, just go to management to do. Some people always think that, all by the market have the final say, if all the market have the final say , can not overcome the economic crisis, economic crisis occurs, it is because of market failure, so no absolute freedom in any market economy.
Reporter: There is a market argument, the U.S. is to save the economy, not to save the stock market, or that the U.S. can save the market, China can not save the market.
Water Paper: his head is filled, or be ass kicked. always have such a person, I still do not understand why they are so happy to see a collapse in China stock market. I believe that this is not an ordinary person can understand. We are mainly to solve the problem, such as the aftermath of a share reform to solve the problem of how to enable the stock market played a role in the economic barometer of the problem, there is this idea, I believe, he would to compare constructive, good perspective on the stock market, the stock market itself will solve the obstacles and problems. If the stock market itself can not solve the problem, to come forward by the government to solve. for example, can not now tradable reform of the system due to the cost of all of the transition from small shareholders, coordinate and solve major shareholder, to share. It has a system cost, market transaction costs in there. IPO shareholders and the existing tradable shares, the cost of full ownership is not a concept, they how to calculate the cost difference between, you have to consider.
example, unless the market is hot, you give the market confidence in the future we create the environment for more incremental funding, and more than enough to offset all circulation on the stock to bring concerns about inadequate funding, that is, you can create a supply and demand balance so that everyone expected. Otherwise, the valuation is meaningless, the market to collapse. market crash in terms of who is bad thing, of course, in terms of loss of investors, the government of course chaos, loss of corporate finance functions, re-financing but also to raise money. Now we all know, the one hand, tight monetary policy, on the other hand, capital markets are so bad, financing will melt in less than what companies way out, this is not Gaosi up the Chinese economy?
I do not know why some people are so confused, why did he go against the stock market and the economy together, it is mutual A dependency relationship is a mutual relationship between action and reaction. you know, when is certainly wrong.
4. stuck in the country and the people are not investors, is a good thing,
Reporter: Now is the negative wealth effect.
Water Paper: Yes, the consequences of the negative wealth effect is, Many companies lose money, the affordable housing can not afford housing. Some how my mind was flooded it?
Reporter: whether they are not water, they have their own point of view, the question you just said, stock trap, so he does not buy a house, above the real estate bubble is squeezed, this is not exactly it? stock market was caught, and can not buy a house, real estate bubble is not conducive to resolving it? above are worried about inflation, which money in the stock market sets, can not go to consumer inflation was not able to do?
Water Paper: Yes, inflation is what causes it? inflation is the weaker U.S. dollar, the dollar devaluation initiative because it can be exported to make up its deficit. after weak U.S. dollar, oil prices to surge, because the oil is to hold dollar-denominated transactions, the same oil, the dollar is worthless, high oil prices have. The reason we can understand. soaring oil prices to a certain extent, be speculation to a certain extent, in turn, extremes meet, can not go on, leading the world economy back, because all costs are too high, food began to price increases, raw material prices, corporate profits is not the last, lead to economic recession. real estate is the case, certainly not rise too fast, it will be a natural process of transfers, as housing prices rose too far, fixed up, there will be a downturn, the adjustment process, until all income level of growth up, or waiting to digest after a number of properties for sale, will have a fit with the economic gains.
real estate prices rising too fast and too fast down, are a huge impact on the economy, especially the excessive down. too fast down the consequences of more realistic risk, now mainly on two aspects, one bank non-performing assets constituted the second is the local current financial exert great pressure. we all know now, why do local governments willing to land? Because a large part of his fiscal transfer payments from the land. bank personal loans turned out to be a part of quality assets, and now these two fell over, resulting in excessive down, before I agree that the Government has targeted the regulation of Do not let it rise too fast, because it is a pillar industry, involves so many upstream and downstream industries, this market downturn if the U.S. has done to you read. Once the U.S. housing market correction, the whole economy certainly in recession, let alone on China. the construction industry, steel, aluminum, copper, aluminum, etc. must follow the economic downturn.
Fortunately, the real demand of the Chinese real estate market is still very large, the price rose too fast factors to some extent suppress the release of the real needs. If the price rises more slowly, or have a callback, then, on the contrary the real demand for the release'd help. In addition, affordable housing around the market, a lot of construction, a species degree, to some extent the state will play a stabilizing prices.
Reporter: The stock market in the adjustment of status, or to cover huge amounts of money in the stock market is not conducive to the real estate market shake-up?
Water Paper: You said that the investment funds, do not count all the normal consumption of the funds. Once the market may suffer losses if the normal consumption will be suppressed. stuck in the country and the people are not investors, is a good thing, I do not know why the Chinese stock market was pleased collapse, while others put the blame on management, said the management would like to see China's stock market fell, which is something incredible.
Reporter: And the view, in the above has some influence, say that the stock market fell so also is a normal correction, because the foam packed enough, many stocks have risen 10 times, 20 times, to a 50% pullback, the bubble is very high.
Water Paper: Many of the words that the extent is not necessarily a complete expression of the meaning, but I am afraid that talking is not necessarily a matter of time, because we determine a reasonable market is irrational, there is no value or the earnings of view, look for the growth of listed companies. Now the average price-earnings ratio of 18 times, less than 20 times earnings is very low stock price-earnings ratio over the years, it is not normal.
Reporter: They say that is normal, because in the past there is no non settlement calculations.
5. the Government to do the government should do, investors bear the responsibility he.
Reporter: They say that others had already lifted the ban, we are lifting the ban, to digest the lifting of the ban.
Water Paper: Management is to avoid excessive shock and drop, you know I am, to earnings valuation point of view, of course, we do not deserve that loss of many investors, he does not understand the reason many of them do not know why buy or sell, people are looking to buy a buy to buy in the end. to see people selling He also sold, were sold in the final results. Most investors are like this. We understand this as a relative inside the reasonable man, should come out, and more call for more commitment in all aspects of the liability of the capital market, China's capital market to avoid the ups and downs of property income to avoid the many groups there should not have losses. system transition, who change the rules of the game, not you, not me , nor is it the other individual investors, is the change management that we play. another play would have to maintain market stability. management's responsibility is to stabilize the market.
Reporter: It is said that there are two aspects of management concerns, one is said it appeared to rescue the market, as market-like stamp, save a rebound and fell down, investors will be stuck with a new batch of management authority is a new injury.
Water Paper: Government to do the government should do things, the investors bear his responsibility. For example, after completing adjustment of stamp duty, the market went down how to do? This is what the investors themselves, the Government has done a thing to do, whether rescue Ye Hao or institutional correction or just the macro-control Ye Hao, what kind of language does not matter, the key things that you do not you do? done, things do not make do not blame you, do not do this thing consequences, the responsibility is yours. bridge owned by bridge, road return, everyone make their own efforts. people in their place, to do their duty, investors, too, do not blame on others, saw the market down, all the blame on management. but the management should think that he is not doing its own work to do.
6. the world is not a market where large non-random reduction can be. ; not sold, the market lost its way bigger, not as in the low to digest ; size of the non-develop what terms, this is wrong. Now he seems to recognize the. For example, the beginning of this year, avoiding the efforts to stop calls, it finally fell to the cost of almost 4,000 points to recognize that this is a problem. I think, recognize problems, not far from the solution. If they are unwilling to recognize or refuse to address this issue, disasters will continue to persist. now has recognized this problem, take steps to see the secondary sale of mitigation measures to see if I can not reduction of the expected size. but large scale reduction not impossible, said Li Rongrong, and in considerable long time, no large-scale reduction of state-owned shares. Huang Qifan be blunt, the current can not reduction of state-owned shares. But this is not a legal obligation, for a long time is how long? month is two months too. When the system can be formed of constraints, constraints on the legal significance.
Reporter: In your opinion how should limit, and now Now get a large market, but how to do the secondary market? April 20 policies proposed by the loopholes, loopholes does not matter, the direction is right, that can not be directly on the secondary market, how do bridge reduction ? now aware of the problem to a secondary offering raised the problem of how a secondary offering? the following must be broker, brokerage for you to go under the broker has to find a good home, which is the wholesale form. then they have to have some moratorium, limited sale of strategic investors. In addition, the introduction of the second issue as long as the concept sale, issuance examination committee is not bound by the SFC of the constraints? I think if would be bound, is a good thing. to be bound at least a little benefit, it can be by management to there is a constraint, or how all state line it free?
lot of people seem to encourage, called of, this is a big mistake. Therefore,
Water Paper: This is the people are really scared half to death, in fact, and can be underweight, the light has the attitude of the SAC is not enough, scared enough to solve all their own fear. SFC over there a system of constraints, may be a lot of people would believe that this is a right, this rights are not freely flexible.
I think the ; how to do in case of a large scale? I think it will not easily enter the secondary market, I have been called for, precisely, on the major issues we need institutional constraints, to develop appropriate trading rules, can not just cut, can not just overweight. can not just overweight , of course, can not just underweight, and he could not think of how to modify the Ordinance? may still we call enough. may need to call you repeatedly, he would change. If the second sale, then, can be considered a constraint. I have a talk to They say, we are now management is with the international standards, there is a choice of international standards, the restrictive terms of time may not see that the introduction of the second sale, he also said that with the international standards, why turn a blind eye at the time what?
such as controlling shareholder of the transaction, take a simple example, the securities firm Bear Stearns went bankrupt, the stock fell from 145 yuan breath 10 yuan, JP Morgan Chase said the acquisition of my two yuan, the results of a large shareholder to JP Morgan Chase to the report, because the major shareholders by the bully. major shareholder said how can you do? market price of 10 yuan, how can you fetch a price of 2 million? This tells us there are many things worth learning the SFC, why Bell Stearns shareholder could not leave? him to go away, he can not go.
Reporter: It is said that no restrictions would not let him go, he can not go himself, as the company's situation is a problem he could not walk, to left belong to insider trading, should be held liable if the company he can walk no problem.
Water Paper: This requires management to serious study. controlling shareholder of the trading rules and retail and certain other large non-controlling shareholders do not the same, because it holds the company's internal situation, if you do not have any constraints, then the time to be overweight, the report did poorly, the stock fell down, he holdings of capital injection, the injection of assets into it. After he finished holdings, the report done well, more than put away the message out, stock up, and he came to Underweight. controlling shareholders of listed companies also need to work it? No, not on speculation over his own stock it? So, definitely not the case, we can only common sense to push back, definitely not the case. management and many work to do, is indeed already started to work. I think in the first half of the avoided, think we can do nothing, we have the market, we pursue the will become a shell company, controlling shareholders fled, or retail dealer to offer to take over, do you think will happen next do?
Water Paper: There is no constraint, in theory, this course will appear kinds of situations, who will responsible?
Reporter: In this case, the company worthless, because the company and the valuable things are often the controlling shareholder of the soft power are related, he left the company in fact can not be running a.
Water Paper: Who held this responsibility?
Reporter: Management?
water skin: Yes, before the grant award due to the dominance somewhat too far, due to the dominance is to find those responsible approved , someone must be responsible for this, can not say we are irresponsible, how they wish to play how you play, the major shareholder with the minority shareholders own game go, I do not care. you whether you? Whether you want you doing? < br> 7. The tragedy is that small retail investors, the last time to restrain the Code
Reporter: markets for a long time, do you think the market was waiting forever? 2284 points restrain the fast, fast until the flowers Thanks all.
Water Paper: I think the tragedy of the retail market is small, the last time to restrain the Code, because of information asymmetry, the collapse of confidence, in the bottom of the flesh, but the laws of the market perspective, the pace of social progress is concerned, the market continued to pay the price after the return to leadership, management awareness of the importance of capital markets, to numerous investors sacrifice to the law of value in exchange for them, economic law, understanding of capital market law. I want the whole economic policy adjustments are closely related, because this year, natural disasters is one thing, the U.S. financial crisis is one thing, but several times in China than the U.S. stock market decline, which in fact is also a financial crisis, I want that we also have to deal with improper relations, avoidance can avoid.
then if we respond properly, such as the Asian financial crisis in 98 years, we may be able to put crisis into opportunity Now it is not too late to remedy the situation, including the timely adjustment of macro-control policies, I believe that the inherent vitality of the Chinese economy, as long as an adjustment policies, the Chinese people of this economic vitality is very strong, very strong, including market are so large.
8. Now institution is the Government's economic policies have a major adjustment, but they also see the consequences of adjustment after the dare to buy, or they worry about performance of listed companies next year, a landslide, do not dare to buy stocks, do you think these organizations, raised funds is not too pessimistic?
Water Paper: institutions are momentum investors, so no one can beat the market sector, and increase their trading in 5000, 6000, more than 3,000 points in the flesh. that institutions are also very interesting topic, they is the momentum investors now know. I remind the management, organization is the largest retail, sometimes even the retail investors do not like, but they are not value investors. last year, value investor, this is not a joke? gave him a great irony. They are momentum investors, what people are value investors? retail, private. as long as the company's fundamentals have not changed, he would carry, do shareholders. Now institution is the six hours of work, what the market did not want to, regardless of stock index futures, margin trading, the GEM, limit Congress report.
Reporter: reports mention.
Water Paper: We can not say. can say will not necessarily do, do not necessarily named in the mouth, including the urgent need for the market introduced measures, nor can the Commission had the Lord, I now little hope of the Commission, and anyway there are large than the Commission, had to bear the responsibility of the Chinese economy sector. hope that the Commission could do a good job work, such as , Can be interpreted as good news for the market do?
Water Paper: It should be understood as good news, because the theoretical assumption that holdings of major shareholders will not, so will be overweight. The problem is, you do not want to underweight to institutional constraints, or legal constraints, so the market can not be said to be hypothetical, not in terms of logical reasoning, and it plainly, to enlarge the market uncertainty, the composition is not necessarily unreasonable, especially in institutions, in this position do not hit the white does not drop, because the more smashing, received in the post on the cheaper chips. I think that this round of adjustment in space has certainly been more than the normal adjustments, but time is not enough. as a three-year bull market , counting from the adjustment time, how have Caixing a year. by foreign law, cattle long bear short, we can not short to adjust over a few months, it has a period of time.
9. to 2009, when the policy may be a strong push of the : Yes, a lot of optimism earlier this year to see if the end of this year, is late, then early next year. I wrote, like 95 years, like 06 and 96 years, 07 years and 97 years is really the same, also have great social concept, the last round is the return of Hong Kong, this round of the Olympic Games is the adjustment of .98 years, 2008 was adjusted, 98 years floods, earthquakes .98 08 years after a hard landing is not always stimulate them, turning around a state-owned enterprises, where the poor solution, so only The strong stimulation.
now we also face the economic downturn, do not say a hard landing, as well as a soft landing, 98 years of state-owned enterprises have problems turning around poor solution, now also in trouble for SMEs, there are small by financing policies to address the corporate financing problem. I think the natural environment, market environment and 98 years are very similar. to 2009, when they are not a and the surface of macroeconomic policy, it is to make adjustments, as the stock market, and to make corresponding adjustments can adjust at the same time, the size of the non-policy is relaxed, monetary policy, are themselves not normal ...
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